According to a ranking that was released on Monday by Cross Dependency Initiative, a company that specializes in climate risk analytics for businesses, banks, and regions, the vast majority (or 80%) of the 50 provinces that will be most affected by climate change to their physical infrastructure by the year 2050 are located in China, the United States, and India.
The most vulnerable states in India are Punjab, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Kerala, and Assam. The ranking also emphasizes that Mumbai, India’s commercial capital, is at high risk. Nine of India’s 50 high-risk states are there; China has 26 and the US has 5.
Eight climate change hazards are included in the Gross Domestic Climate Risk ranking, which shows the physical risk to built infrastructure. Extreme heat, forest fire, riverine and surface flooding, coastal inundation (coastal flooding), soil movement (related to drought), extreme wind, and freeze-thaw. The analysis calculates probable damage to the built environment under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s RCP 8.5 scenario, which is a high emission scenario that is consistent with average global warming of over 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures by the end of the century. It also uses local weather and environmental data and engineering archetypes.
“The gross domestic climate risk ranking provided by XDI serves as a stark reminder of the disruptive effects that climate change will have on the developmental trajectories of the global south. According to the report, nine Indian states and provinces ranked among the top 50 most at-risk states and provinces will experience an average 110% increase in damage risk by 2050 under high emissions scenarios (around a four-degree rise). India’s 27 states and more than three-quarters of its districts are currently extreme event hotspots, resulting in a 5% decrease in GDP with a temperature rise of 0.8 degrees. These figures say a lot. Climate-vulnerable states like Assam, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh, among others, will lose more than 10% of their gross state product (GSDP) if global warming is not limited to 2-degree thresholds. By establishing 21st-century institutions like ISA and CDRI, India has already established its global thought leadership. These institutions should take the lead in making India the global center for climate solutions by bringing systemic, technological, and financial innovations into the mainstream. “Promoting nature-based solutions should be a national imperative that can avert the extent of loss and damage to physical assets and infrastructures,” Abinash Mohanty, sector head of IPE-Global, an international development organization, stated. “Climate risks and readiness do not go hand in hand.
The most affected provinces in China are in the east and south, along the floodplains and deltas of the Yangtze and Pearl Rivers, where the states dominate the ranking. California, Texas, and Florida, three economically important states in the United States, are most affected. Brazil, Pakistan, and Indonesia are among the top 50 nations with multiple provinces and states.
Due to the fact that extensive built-up areas overlap with high levels of economic activity and property wealth, the ranking data can be significant for investors. According to a statement released on Monday by the Cross Dependency Initiative (XDI), climate resilient investment can be informed by adaptation measures and infrastructure planning undertaken by state and provincial governments.
In 2050, two of China’s largest economic centers—Jiangsu and Shandong—will be the top two most at-risk provinces worldwide. The report says that each has an economy worth more than a trillion dollars.
“In response to investor demand for data on sub-sovereign and regional risk, we are releasing this analysis. Given the amount of capital investment represented by the assets at risk in the provinces identified, the vulnerability of global supply chains, and the need for climate resilience to inform investment, the findings from the XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk ranking highlight the importance of pricing physical climate risk in financial markets, including bond markets. “Now – for the first time – the finance industry can directly compare Mumbai, New York, and Berlin using a like-for-like methodology,” said XDI CEO Rohan Hamden in a statement on Monday.
Many states in the United States are concerned about rising sea levels. Sea level rise rates along the Mid-Atlantic Coast were found to be three to four times higher than the global average, according to the US Fourth National Climate Assessment. The states in the Midwest with the highest risk of flooding and wildfire rise to the top.